Hezbollah Threatens Cyprus as Israel-Lebanon Tensions Rise

Hassan Nasrallah’s Warning to Cyprus

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, warned Cyprus that if it aided Israel in attacks on Lebanon, it would become a target. Israel’s army has approved an offensive on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, and its foreign minister has said an announcement on whether Israel will go to war is imminent.

Cyprus has often allowed Israel to conduct air operations in its airspace, but never when conflicts are at their height.

Cyprus’s Response to the Threat

After Nasrallah’s threat, Cyprus announced it would remain neutral and not get involved in any war. However, the UK uses its bases in Cyprus to carry out military activities in the area. According to reports, the UK armed Israel in its conflict with Gaza and south Lebanon and also utilised those facilities to launch attacks against the Houthis in Yemen.

Strategic Implications for Cyprus and Hezbollah

Cyprus’s declaration of neutrality can be viewed as a strategic win for Hezbollah, as it suggests an indirect message from the EU that there is no appetite for backing an Israeli military campaign. An attack on Cyprus could be devastating for Cyprus economically, as it would be devastating for its economy and security.

Other observers doubt Hezbollah’s ability to strike Cyprus because of the potential regional impacts. Cyprus is also worried about a possible influx of refugees, both Lebanese and Syrians in Lebanon, to its territory.

EU and Regional Reactions

The European Union recently announced that it would give Lebanon more than $1bn in financial assistance, most of which is stipulated to go towards combating irregular migration. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened Cyprus in a fiery speech, threatening to target the small Mediterranean island if it aids Israel in a potential war between the Lebanese militant group and Israel. Nasrallah said that Cyprus will be part of this war too if it opens its airports and bases to Israeli forces.

International Solidarity and Diplomatic Reactions

The European Union has come to Cyprus’ defense, saying that since the island “is a member state of the EU, this means the EU is Cyprus and Cyprus is the EU.” “Undivided solidarity” with Cyprus was also proclaimed by neighbouring Greece, which claimed that “the threat to use force is a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter.”

Lebanese state media reported that Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib of Lebanon spoke with his counterpart from Cyprus, Constantinos Kombos, stating that Lebanon “continues to rely on the positive role played by Cyprus in supporting stability in the region.”

The Broader Context of the Threats

The Israel-Hamas confrontation in Gaza takes on a new dimension with the mere mention of Cyprus, despite experts stating that war between Israel and Hezbollah is still unthinkable. It raises questions about Cyprus’s relations to Israel and runs the possibility of joining an EU country in a conflict that has already broken throughout the Middle East.

In a televised speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah singled out nearby Cyprus, threatening to target the small Mediterranean island if it aids Israel in a potential war between the Lebanese militant group and Israel.

Cyprus’s Strategic Position

Cyprus, an Eastern Mediterranean island, is strategically located near Middle East conflicts and European power centers. Divided into Greek-speaking Republic of Cyprus and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the island’s sovereignty is often recognized. Despite being a member of the EU, Cyprus is not part of NATO’s defense alliance. Diplomatic relations between Cyprus and Israel began in the early 20th century.

Cyprus-Israel Relations

Cyprus’ diplomatic relations with Israel began in 1960, but relations deteriorated in the 1980s and 1990s due to Israel’s close ties with Turkey and the Arab-Israeli conflict. However, ties rebounded in the late 1990s and 2000s as Israel turned to the Eastern Mediterranean for economic partnerships, particularly after discovering natural gas in the region. Cyprus has also been seen as a partner to thwart regional threats, particularly from Turkey and Iran-linked groups.

Military Cooperation Between Cyprus and Israel

Given that Cyprus’ geography mimics that of Lebanon, Israel has using the land to train its forces for a potential conflict with Hezbollah. In 2022, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a joint military drill with Cypriot forces, focusing on fighting multiple fronts and battling Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Cypriot presidency has stated that the country has never facilitated any aggressive action or attack against any country.

Cyprus’s Humanitarian Efforts

Cyprus, citing its humanitarian efforts that assisted in bringing some aid into Gaza, has been eager to refute claims that it is involved in the Gaza war. As part of global attempts to establish a maritime corridor for humanitarian goods towards Gaza, Cyprus started permitting aid ships to leave its ports in March. In order to streamline the delivery of supplies to Gaza, the EU established a logistics hub in Cyprus.

Future of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

Some experts believe that the prospect of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict breaking out into an all-out war is unlikely, as neither side wants such an escalation. The Biden administration is unlikely to let Israel fight a two-front war on its own, and the US may pull in other Iran-backed actors and potentially target Iran itself.

Nasrallah’s Hard-Hitting Speech

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has warned Israel about the potential cost of a war in Lebanon, as the conflict escalates along the Lebanese-Israeli border. Nasrallah spoke for over an hour in a televised speech eulogizing a senior field commander killed in an Israeli airstrike last week.

His remarks were the most hard-hitting since Iran-backed Hezbollah began attacking Israel last October across the border with Lebanon in support of Hamas in Gaza.